If the Election Were Held Today, To Whom Exactly Would Obama Lose?
Earlier today, Mediaite’s Glynnis MacNicol reported on a new Rasmussen poll that indicates that while 44% of adults (although they never do get to how the children would vote) say they would vote to re-elect President Obama were the election held today, 49% say they would not. She correctly notes that the poll doesn’t consider a hypothetical opponent, or other variables.
Luckily for hypothetical Barack Obama, if the election were held today, somebody would have to get 45% of the vote in order to beat him.
While a poll like this unquestionably bespeaks a deep dissatisfaction among Americans, it doesn’t tell the whole story. According to a recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, not only is there a lot more of this sandwich to go around, President Obama gets a relatively small bite of it.
That poll pegs Republican Party favorability at 25% versus 46% unfavorable, while the Democrats are at 42% favorable, 36% unfavorable. On health care reform, 64% disapprove of the job Republicans in Congress are doing. By a 46%-38% margin, voters hope the Democrats retain control of congress in 2010.
The Republican Party’s most visible star, Sarah Palin, has a 27% approval rating in this poll, enough to eke past Nancy Pelosi. Even in a CNN poll that has her at 44% approval, 71% say she’s not qualified to be president.
What this poll really means is that the country is messed up, and people want it to get fixed more quickly than it is, as quickly as they hoped it would. President Obama is only losing to candidate Obama. The thing is, problems like the economy and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan were never supposed to be solved in nine months.
The Republican strategy of trying to win every news cycle may be taking a toll on Obama now, but they need to offer Americans something they like better. They’re certainly not doing that now.
7 comments
DWHarper says: Finally a sane response to the idiotic column by Ms. McNicol. Here Mr. Christopher adleast gets at the underlying problem, which is that the media needs a story every day. And one of the stories that has been going on since his inauguration is that why Obama hasn’t solved the world and nation’s problems in 1 day, 100 days, 10 months(1 year since election). Of course, Ms. McNicol plays right into that story, conveniently provided by the poll from Rasmussen. Why doesn’t she just not do any work and reprint Republican talking points. Oh, right, that job is already done by Fox News.
ImNotBlue says: It’s funny to me how people like DWHarper will b*tch and moan that Rasmussen is “too biased,” while others will claim the poll was more like a “FOX News” poll… but as soon as NBC puts out a poll, despite their well established bias, they’re prepared to believe anything!
Odds are, the Rasmussen poll is a little too outlier to be considered hard evidence… but then again, so is the NBC poll. After a quick Google search, I found the Pew had put Republican favorability at 40% at the end of August. Is NBC really trying to get me to believe that in 2 months, after nothing much to speak of, Republican approval fell 15 points? Really?
The point of Mr. Christopher’s analysis (although, he too puts too much faith in these outlier polls) is that while Pres. Obama continues to become less popular, nobody on the right has moved in to capitalize on that yet. But to that point, are we really surprised? It’s 9 months into Obama’s presidency, and we expect to have a front-runner for the 2012 campaign already?! Isn’t that a bit unrealistic? Why would anyone want to be a front-runner now? Just to give as much time as possible for the opposition to derail the campaign… not a good strategy.
To me, all these seems like a manufactured news story… created by journalists and pundits looking for something to talk about. Elections bring in really great ratings… but folks, you have to calm down… we can’t have one every other day.
TfT says: The republicans have put forth several ideas, specifically on healthcare reform. Things like tort reform and purchasing insurance across state lines. They have crafted their own bill(supposedly, I haven’t seen it) and it is being scored by the CBO. They intend to put it out there when the final dem bill gets to the floor.
The problem is the republicans don’t get any media coverage, except negative coverage. Most of the broadcast networks are anti-conservative/republican and just report that republicans are the party of “no’.
Yesterday I was watching something (don’t remember which network, but probably FNC because there was a republican congressman on the air who wasn’t being yelled down by the anchor) who claimed that the republicans are the party of “know”…I kind of liked that.
None-the-less, I think these polls are stupid and I agree with INB, it’s 2009 and there is no need for any one to step up to the plate this early and claim they are running for President three years from now. The last election was a two-year process, I for one hope that will never be the case again.
DWHarper says: ImNotBlue says:
November 3, 2009 at 4:42 pm
It’s funny to me how people like DWHarper will b*tch and moan that Rasmussen is “too biased,” while others will claim the poll was more like a “FOX News” poll… but as soon as NBC puts out a poll, despite their well established bias, they’re prepared to believe anything!
You didn’t read my whole post apparently because I look at ALL POLLS which are weighted according to their accuracy and timeliness by fivethirtyeight.com, which is by far the best polling site. If you look at the presidential approval polls, there is an old poll by ABC/WashPost that could be considered and outlier but Rasmussen is the ONLY poll that is adleast 15 points difference from the others. Bring proof next time not your opinion not based on fact.
ImNotBlue says: DWHarper says:
November 3, 2009 at 7:24 pm
Yes, DW… I read your whole post. The whining and the complaining… and then the polls that supported your previously held ideas.
But I decided to take your advice and look at what Nate Silver was saying about the pollsters (do note that Nate is an admitted Liberal, make of that what you will). His last update under the Pollster ratings link (from 5/28/2008)… it puts Rasmussen at 3rd from the top! Sooooooo… it looks like fivethirtyeight.com thinks Rasmussen is pretty good!
How about them facts?
kimtaylor says: This is democracy. Impeachment is not a plausible solution when the majority disagrees with Republicans. However,it must feel good to talk about Impeachment. So keep on dreaming and venting for the rest of your life. Meanwhile life is wonderful to us.
oneifbyland says: I nominate Congressman Pete Olsen from Texas 22 congressional district. He has way more leadership experience than President Obama. The “majority” disagrees with our current administration for sure. The GOP needs to stick to Reagan style politics. Reagan was instrumental in bringing down the Berlin wall. Obama is trying to rebuild it on the Mason-Dixon line. That will set us back as Americans. We the People, not you people or us or them. If it turns into a black thing it will be rejected with prejudice. Wealth redistribution, does not work. If all the money in the world was redistributed equally to everyone within ten years the same people would have it again. President Obama is playing with the war machine now. He better be very careful not to mis play, risk is a complicated game.
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