Worried Much? Trump Touts Poll Showing Him Crushing DeSantis 54%-12% After Bombshell New Hampshire Poll

Tommy ChristopherJun 23rd, 2022, 10:27 am
 
Trump Touts Outlier Poll Showing Him Crushing DeSantis 54% - 12% After Bombshell New Hampshire Poll

L: Seth Herald/Getty Images; R: Joe Raedle/Getty Images

Former President Donald Trump touted an outlier poll showing him crushing Ron DeSantis by 42 points amid intense buzz over a New Hampshire poll favorable to the Florida governor.

Headlines and news segments abounded Wednesday and Thursday about a new state poll from The University of New Hampshire Survey Center showing DeSantis running ahead of Trump against President Joe Biden, and even beating Trump head-to-head in a primary matchup. Joe Scarborough even called him “Fat Elvis.”

But in the middle of DeSantis’ moment, Trump took the chance to remind everyone that he can still kill it in an outlier poll. On Wednesday evening, he blasted out an email, as well as a “Truth Social” not-a-tweet, promoting a Zogby poll. He posted an image of a tweet from PollProjectUSA that read:

NEW:
@TheZogbyPoll

2024 #NatlPres GOP Primary w/o Trump
Ron DeSantis 27%
Mike Pence 23%
Ted Cruz 12%
Marco Rubio 5%
Nikki Haley 4%
Glenn Youngkin 4%
Mike Pompeo 3%
Greg Abbott 3%
Someone Else 6%
Undecided 15%

408 LV | 5/23-5/24

Trump didn’t provide a link, but the tweet links to a Washington Examiner article on the poll, which has a tiny sample size of 408 that uses a “likely voter” model and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 points.

While Trump does dominate DeSantis in almost every Republican primary poll, the margin is typically less than 30 points, and DeSantis is typically more dominant over the rest of the field than in Zogby’s poll. The Florida governor’s real strength is in hypothetical matchups in which Trump decides not to run.

In poll after poll, the Florida governor basically owns the field in a Trump-free primary, and while it is early, that dynamic has only solidified over time. And DeSantis’s support is as deep as it is wide, relative to the non-Trump candidates. In one poll from UMass Amherst conducted by YouGov, Trump led DeSantis 55% to 20%, but DeSantis receive support from 69 percent of Republicans who listed him as either their first (20%), second (37%) or third (12%) choice.

But Zogby has a closer race without Trump:

With Trump out of the race, it becomes a dog fight between the two conservatives-Former Vice President Mike Pence (23%) and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (27%). Senator Ted Cruz is the only other candidate to receive double digit support with 12%.

The real threat DeSantis poses, illustrated in state polls like the New Hampshire one, is that he demonstrates credibility as a candidate — even if not everyone knows how to pronounce his name yet.

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