Will Bill O’Reilly Survive at Fox News?

While America is still recovering from the shock of learning that Barry Manilow is gay, we shouldn’t forget another “stunning” recent revelation. Bill O’Reilly’s show on Fox News is in big trouble: Advertisers are fleeing due to news that the network has had to reportedly pay at least $13 million to protect him from sexual harassment lawsuits, mostly from women who worked with him.

As of this writing, dozens of major companies have pulled advertising from the show in some form. Ironically, or perhaps relatedly, reports indicate that Fox renewed O’Reilly’s contract in the midst of all of this, which may have actually helped provoke more outrage.

While advertisers are making it abundantly clear where they stand on O’Reilly, he did get support from President Trump in, of all places, The New York Times. This, understandably, incited indignation on its own.

Ordinarily, a strong vote of confidence from the President of the United States in the nation’s newspaper of record would ensure that an embattled media personality would survive any threat to the future to their career. However, we are obviously living in extremely strange times and recent presidential shout-outs did nothing for Milo Yiannopoulos and almost nothing for Judge Andrew Napolitano, who were both punished almost immediately after getting public Trump support. Also, having a guy famous for “grabbing pussy” support you against claims of mistreatment of women probably isn’t the most effective way to kill the story.

I have written before about allegations of sexual harassment against O’Reilly, and why I think they are commonplace among older men in the “news” business, especially at an outlet purposely stocked with as many young and attractive women like Fox News. While a celebrity as rich and famous as O’Reilly could easily be a prime target for trumped-up accusations (especially after the Roger Ailes controversy, leading to his demise at Fox), I tend to believe that there is at least some legitimate reason as to why they are paying these women big money.

I don’t know Bill personally, however, I did make two prominent appearances on his television show, the second of which is regrettably the only time I have ever gone on television to “spin” — which is kind of hilarious given the show’s “No Spin Zone” nickname. I also did his old radio show a couple of times. I remember this well because he told me that he’d have me on his TV show again if I redid a controversial poll that I commissioned. He would then renege on that because I dared to offer it to Sean Hannity, as well, when Bill’s show was suddenly noncommittal (O’Reilly and Hannity famously despise each other). So, I have never thought particularly highly of O’Reilly, whom I consider to be a ratings-motivated weather vane with no real principles… kind of like our president.

Whether O’Reilly is truly guilty of mistreating women on the job is pretty much unknowable at the moment — and is a question that may never be resolved— it might be possible to make a better assessment of whether The O’Reilly Factor will survive as the King of cable “news” shows. It will definitely be a close call.

On the one hand, O’Reilly’s ratings have always been his calling card and they have been very strong during the Trump administration (he didn’t sell-out early to his “milkshake” buddy Trump early in the GOP primary process for nothing!) and even during the early stages of this crisis. That, combined with his new contract, would seemingly make ousting O’Reilly about as likely as the Patriots getting rid of Bill Belichick.

However, I honestly can’t recall a show ever being able to endure an advertiser retreat with the magnitude of this one. What makes this ad flight so very dangerous for O’Reilly is that, even though his ratings have always been strong, the inherently divisive nature of the show — and its older demographic — have already made it more difficult for the program to translate those numbers into commensurate dollars.

Now that everyone in the world knows that advertisers are fleeing the show in droves, even more will become hesitant to purchase time and even those who might be willing to take the risk will do so with the extreme leverage of a buyer’s market. This means that revenues will almost immediately dip well below their norms and could evaporate considerably over time.

In a real sense, he’s like the super-rich guy who just got all his assets frozen. People will still take his phone calls, but the sex appeal is gone.

The key question is whether this possible “death spiral” can be reversed. Rush Limbaugh was able to survive a similar advertiser revolt a few years ago, but his show has never been the same and I firmly believe that is part of what set up his shocking sell-out to Trump during the primaries. But television is a different animal and, at 67 years old, it is not like there is any real long-term benefit for advertisers to hang in there with O’Reilly or jump back on the bandwagon after the dust settles (which, in this short-attention span universe, might be as soon as next week).

With his one-time protector Ailes long gone, Trump sycophants Hannity and Tucker Carlson nipping at his heels in the ratings, and his “milkshake” pal Trump toxic within several important demographics, there is no doubt that the ice O’Reilly currently stands on has never been weaker. It could also easily get even thinner in the coming weeks.

So, intellectually you can make a strong argument that O’Reilly’s days at Fox News are numbered. However, my gut tells me that a long-time survivor like O’Reilly, who is an expert at playing the political games that are so important to success in the modern media business, will need something else dramatic to happen for him to be dislodged from his throne.

Generally, you must kill the King with one devastating strike rather than have him bleed out over time. So far, while O’Reilly is clearly losing blood, he has not been decapitated, and that makes me think betting against his short-term survival would be a mistake.

John Ziegler hosts a weekly podcast focusing on news media issues and is a documentary filmmaker. You can follow him on Twitter at @ZigManFreud or email him at johnz@mediaite.com

This is an opinion piece. The views expressed in this article are those of just the author.