New NH Poll Has Donald Trump in Neck and Neck Battle With…John Kasich?!
When Benjamin Disraeli made his famous “damn lies” quote, he forgot to mention polls, but a new survey out Tuesday morning should make glad the heart of at last one candidate and his apparently large following in the early state of New Hampshire. The American Research Group’s latest New Hampshire Republican primary poll shows that if you factor in their margin of error, Ohio Governor John Kasich is now in a pitched battle for first place with frontrunner Donald Trump.
The poll shows Trump with 27% support to Kasich’s 20%, with a four-point margin of error. The poll included a large sample of “undeclared” likely Republican voters. There are about the same number of independents in New Hampshire as Republicans, but the state overall leans Democratic.
Before all you anti-Trumpers and both of you pro-Kasichers get all excited, though, the company that did the poll received a C minus rating from FiveThirtyEight.com, ratings which are “calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy of each firm’s polls along with its methodology.” the poll is also an extreme outlier; even with this poll included, Trump leads the field by almost 18 points in polling average.
When asked about the poll, Trump chalked it up to New Hampshire’s low population of Corinthians, with whom he does very well.
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